CNN reports on a new CNN/Time poll showing that Bush's reelection in 2004 is no sure thing:

41 percent of all registered voters say they will definitely vote against Bush; just 29 percent say they will definitely vote for him. So Bush must woo about seven in ten swing voters -- not a difficult task for a popular incumbent, but far from a certainty.

The top preferred Democrats are Kerry, Lieberman, Dean, Gephardt, in that order. Sharpton is ahead of Bob Graham and Kucinich is last, behind Carol Mosley Braun.

So who won the Democratic debate last night? According to Washington Post editor Dan Balz, the answer is there was no winner.

The consensus after the debate was that no one was the true winner. Most of the campaign staffs were happy with the performance of their candidates and there wasn't a lot of heavy spinning afterwards, a sign that this debate probably did not change things much in terms of the state of the Democratic race.

Balz analyzes the debate at length in answering readers' questions in the online chat, the transcript is at the above link.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has made his first serious misstep in our view. Yesterday he vowed to fight the bill passed by the California legislature granting drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants. Gray Davis has said he will sign the bill.

Bye, Arnold. Vote No on Recall.

Here is the portion of the transcript from the Wednesday gubernatorial debate in California on the issue of the death penalty. [Ed. The source text was all in capital letters, so we changed it to lower case to make it more readable, but some uncapitalized letters will seem strange.]

Bottom line: Arianna and Canejo are opposed to the death penalty. Bustamante and the Republicans favor it. Camejo also opposes three strikes laws when minor crimes are the third strike.

Shandobil: the next question is from john myers, directed toward arianna huffington.

Myers: Ms. Huffington, one of the most solemn jobs of a governor is his or hers involvement in the sentence for death. You've called for a moratorium on capital punishment because of a racial disparity in the process and factually innocent people sentenced to death. Are you philosophically opposed to the death penalty or its application.

Huffington: I'm philosophically opposed to the death penalty and very opposed to the way it has been applied in california and across the country. At a time when new dna testing has known that innocent people are being put to death by government, I absolutely would want a moratorium. The only reason we do not have more elected officials asking for a moratorium is because they only follow the polling results and they are spineless to speak their own minds and hearts. That is we need independent discussion on the issues of death penalty and others in the state.

Gen. Wesley Clark has announced he's a Democrat-- many analysts take this as a sign he's inching closer to entering the race for the Democratic nomination for President.

Clark spoke at NYU. Among the comments we found inspiring:

"I fought for the right of people to disagree. I fought for the right of people to protest. I fought for the right of people to question the president, and not just to question, you know, what did he eat today and how far did he run."

"I fought for the right of privacy," he went on. "I fought for freedom from government intrusion of our personal lives. I fought for the belief that every American is a human being who is worthy of respect and who should be treated fairly and equally, regardless of race, religion, creed, sexual orientation or any other discriminating factor."

We think Wesley Clark belongs on the Democratic ticket--either as presidential nominee or as VP to whoever gets the nomination. We hope he's been meeting with Dean and Kerry in recent weeks.

Stay tuned, we think an announcement will be made within the next ten days or so.

Ted Barlow has joined the group blog, Crooked Timber, and has this lengthy post debunking the Bustamante and MEChA story. Thanks to Matt Yglesias for the link. Matt, by the way, has started his new job at American Prospect and can be found blogging at Tapped. He will continue his blog with items that would not fit in there. Good luck with the new job, Matt.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has agreed to participate in one debate --but its not the one being held this Wednesday. This week's debate will feature:

Bustamante, Republicans Tom McClintock and Ueberroth, independent Arianna Huffington and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo.

Arnold will debate the third week in September in a match sponsored by the California Broadcaster's Association.

It looks like Arnold will have his hands full this week even without prepping for a debate. An old body-building crony-turned-journalist is about to hit the airwaves with an allegation that Arnold made racist comments to him many years back about blacks in South Africa. The other candidates are taking pot shots at him. The trade union activists have begun a big and expensive campaign to oppose the recall, focusing on Pete Wilson, who is now advising Arnold.

Hollywood celebrities, for the most part, have stayed silent so far and refrained from attacks on Arnold. Arianna is doing pretty well with the celeb crowd though.

As of Saturday, independent candidate Arianna Huffington had received the most celebrity and industry donations, including $21,200 from producer Lawrence Bender ("Pulp Fiction" and "Good Will Hunting"), $21,000 from "Seinfeld" co-creator Larry David and $5,000 each from actor Noah Wyle (NBC's "ER) and writer Aaron Sorkin (NBC's "The West Wing").

We wish everyone would concentrate on opposing the recall rather than on who to support as a replacement. That way, the Republicans --all of them--lose. Bustamante and Arnold can duke it out in 2006 if they want -- and by then, there should be some more worthy democratic contenders joining the fray.

Well, he admitted he smoked pot in the past. Nothing wrong with that. From the look on his face in this decades-old photo , he really enjoyed it. [Source: Grow a Brain]

What he could say now, but undoubtedly won't:

It was long ago and it was far away
And it was so much better than it is today

[Meatloaf, Paradise By The Dashboard Light]

[comments now closed]

The Washington Post has an interesting profile of California Lt. Governor Bustamante. Some details:

He got his college degree this year.

He supports the death penalty.

He backed farmers against environmentalists.

While his entire career has been in politics, he was a staffer for most of it.

He wasn't the choice candidate of the Democratic party in California:

Although prominent Democrats were warned by state and national party officials and California labor leaders not to put their names forward as replacement candidates, Bustamante surprised many and took the plunge. "He was nobody's choice as party standard-bearer," said one Democratic strategist in California.

Bustamante said his strategy is, first and foremost, to urge voters to reject a Davis recall, but then to punch his name as a replacement. After a month of stiff resistance, elected Democrats and the state's powerful unions have come around to support his "no on recall, yes on Bustamante" campaign. The state Democratic Party will likely endorse him soon.

Bustamante's relationship with Gray Davis is described as "frosty."

In his favor, from our viewpoint:

His strong opposition to Proposition 187 which denied government services to illegal immigrants. It passed but was later invalidated by the courts.

Questionable: The large sums of money he receives from groups that run Indian casinos. We're not enamored of Bustamante's justification:

Bustamante defends himself by saying he is not some millionaire like Schwarzenegger who can fund his own race.

Where does that reasoning stop? Is there any group he would not accept money from? Here's more on the loophole that allows Bustamante to accept the money.(scroll to the middle of the article.)

In our view, there's only one clear, rational option for Californians on October 7: Vote no to the recall.

Update: The Mercury News editorializes that Bustamente needs to learn Econ 101.

``Gasoline -- and the business of selling gasoline -- is part of interstate commerce that belongs to Congress to regulate, if at all,'' Anthony Sabino, a law professor in New York told the Los Angeles Times. ``With all due respect to Mr. Bustamante, he is either very ignorant of the law, or he's getting incredibly bad advice from his advisers, or it's a publicity stunt.''

Do we have to pick just one?

Ouch.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals Friday said it will rule on September 5 whether to whether to delay the recall election.

Civil rights groups are calling for the Oct. 7 election to be delayed, contending that the hurry-up timeframe is forcing counties to change their voting plans in ways that disenfranchise minority voters -- and that such changes require federal approval under the Voting Rights Act.

Under federal law, the Department of Justice must pre-clear any revisions to the voting process in Monterey and three other California counties with a history of low voter participation.

Unless federal lawyers approve Monterey County's plan to conduct the vote on short notice by consolidating some polling places, the judges could delay the election on whether to recall Gov. Gray Davis, perhaps until the March presidential primary.

Sen. Hillary Clinton absolutely has ruled out a 2004 bid for the Presidency.

"I am absolutely ruling it out," Clinton said during a visit to the New York State Fair in Syracuse, N.Y. She had insisted in recent months that she will not consider entering the race for president this year even if that is what some Democrats want.

Smart move....she'll be killer in 2008.

Update: Sorry, We meant 2012.

Good for Arnold....for not denying it now.

Asked about the comments in an interview on a Sacramento radio station Wednesday night, Schwarzenegger, who in recent days has been courting conservative voters in California, did not dispute the remarks. He said: "I never lived my life to be a politician. I never lived my life to be the governor of California. Obviously, I've made statements that were ludicrous and crazy and outrageous and all those things, because that's the way I always was."

We don't think California voters will care one bit. We saw a clip of Arnold tonight on an old Geraldo Rivera daytime show from the Pumping Iron days. it was very, very funny. Arnold reminded us of the old Saturday Night Live "Wild and Crazy Guy" played by Steve Martin.

If you want to read the 1977 interview with Arnold that's causing all the ruckus, you can find it at Smoking Gun . [ed. link fixed]

Again, we're against the recall, but we have no beef with Arnold. If Californians want the Dems to stay in power, they should vote no on the recall, not pin their hopes on Bustamante. If they want a change, Arnold's a lot better than the other Republicans running.