According to Newsweek's latest poll, John Kerry's fortunes are rising while Bush's approval ratings sink to an all-time low:

In a hypothetical vote, Kerry and Bush are locked in a dead heat, with Kerry pulling 48 percent or registered voters vs. Bush’s 46 percent.

While Kerry is enjoying his bounce in the polls, Bush’s approval rating is at an all-time low in the NEWSWEEK poll, slipping to 49 percent (with 43 percent approving). Almost half (49 percent) do not want to see the president reelected in the fall (compared to 45 percent who do), which represents a slight improvement in his favor over last week, when 52 percent didn’t want to see him re-elected (44 percent did).

For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, a majority (54 percent) believes the Bush administration misinterpreted intelligence about Iraq.

A majority of those polled didn't think Bush lied--just that he was mistaken. But,

More than half (55 percent) feel the U.S. did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, down from 62 percent in December.

Will it be enough to save Bush if he pulls bin Laden out of a hat before the election? Our view: Not if it also turns out he sat on the news for political purposes.

We'll agree with the New York Times' nice tribute to Howard Dean in Come Back, Little Deaniacs:

However he fares in the coming primaries, Howard Dean has already touched more than a few young lives. Around the country — campus by campus, computer by computer — thousands of teenagers and 20-somethings have fallen hard for his campaign. They're lucky. It's a wonderful experience to lose one's political heart for the first time, as did the college students who sacrificed long hair and beards to be "clean for Gene" — Eugene McCarthy — in 1968, or the young men who stood bare-chested waving placards for Bill Bradley in the New Hampshire snow or followed the banner of Senator John McCain in 2000. The newly enchanted of 2004 bring a rush of young blood into the nation's old campaign arteries.

....If the product of the Dean movement is thousands of young people who are slightly hardened to the lure of a charismatic candidate, but determined to keep on fighting for a better world, it will have been a success no matter what happens to the former governor of Vermont. That is the way politics, at its best, works. First you discover that your paragon of a candidate is all too deeply human. Then you realize that the real heroics come from you and your friends with the pamphlets, stolidly going door to door.

A few days ago we wrote about rumors Gary Hart had decided not to run for U.S. Senate against Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Hart made it official last night.

Hart, who represented Colorado in the Senate from 1975 to 1987, opted out of this year's race by saying he thought he could make his best contribution by writing and speaking on national issues. It was the second time Hart had ruled out a run for the seat, and in his announcement's wake, former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb's name came up for the second time, although even those recruiting him signaled little hope he would enter the race.

Before that, Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo., toyed with the idea of challenging Campbell for months before opting out right around Christmas.

The Denver Post interviewed people who remember Howard Dean's year as an Aspen ski bum. He washed dishes at the Golden Horn restaurant. His former employer disses him, but most of those interviewed are either mildly favorable or say he didn't stand out.

Dean spent the 1971-1972 ski season in Aspen. That's the year we moved to Denver. Aspen was so, so fun back then. We liked Sheriff Bob Braudis's comments--he is the coolest sheriff we know.

Update: Katha Pollitt bashes the press over their treatment of Judith Dean :

I don't think Dr. Judy is weird at all. She's leading a normal, modern, middle-class-professional life. She has been married forever. She has two children. She likes camping and bike riding and picnics. She volunteers. She has work she loves...I have no idea why Judith Steinberg hasn't slogged through the snow for her husband. Maybe she's busy. ('It's not something I can say, 'Oh, you take over for a month,' she explained to Diane Sawyer. Imagine that, Tina, Diane, Maureen-a job where if you don't show up, it matters!)."

We don't care if he did, in fact, we think it would be a plus if he did--he'd look friendlier-- but you decide--Drudge has the pictures. Kerry denies it. But his wife has said in interviews she's a botox user.

We hope if Kerry is using it, he'll just say so. Getting caught in a lie is always worse--even if it's on such a trivial matter.

Maybe Kerry just had a facial and a peel. Maybe he just looks better when he's smiling. After all, before Iowa, he didn't have much to smile about.

Update: 24 hours later, the story still has legs.

Eric at Hamster has the details on the John Kerry ad that will run in South Carolina--including the script. The ad features Kerry and one of the men he served with in Vietnam.

David Alston: "When the bullets began to hit the side of the boat, the boom, the pow, pow, pow, we found out that John Kerry can lead."

Kerry: "There's this sense after Vietnam that every other day is extra. That you have to do what's right. You know it's right to roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy to guarantee all Americans health care and invest in our kids. That's why I'm running for president."

Daily Kos reports that the Dean campaign has undergone a major shakeup. Joe Trippi is out as Campaign Manager--Roy Neel is taking his place. Neel is Al Gore's former chief of staff.

What do you think? Is it too late?

Update: Oliver at Liquid List has this analysis, which we pretty much agree with as to Dean. We're not ready to count Clark out yet, although like Oliver, we're hoping Edwards gets a bump from South Carolina.

Disappointing news....Gary Hart is unlikely to run for the Senate. The only reason given is financial. This isn't official as Hart himself has not commented.

Run, Gary, Run.

8:45 pm ET--if you're by a tv, Kerry is about to come on and claim victory. We're watching CNN tonight.

Kos of Daily Kos, who has been a Dean supporter, on the meaning of Kerry's win:

Dean has enough money to limp on, but by all indications, he's through. If there's something we should all take from this election cycle, it's that the unexpected can and does happen. But for now, Dean would have to pull a miracle to survive.

As I wrote way back when, Feb 3 will determine the anti-Kerry. And I stand by that analysis. Lieberman and Clark are on life support.

So if anyone will stop Kerry, it's up to Edwards. Watch the establishment rally around Kerry to end this thing as quickly as possible.

Edwards is on Larry King now, following Howard Dean. Edwards says he's very pleased and optimistic. He's off to South Carolina tonight. He agrees he has to win South Carolina, but refuses to answer the question about whether he'd run as VP to Kerry. He repeats South Carolina is a "must win" for him. In the next round of questions, Edwards says he's not interested in being VP and he's going to be the nominee.

Update: Kerry was terrific in his victory speech. He hit all the right target groups, particularly the veterans. Smart move to discuss the issues, not just his win or the primaries.

Update: Edwards is really good too--and he has such a winsome personality. Looks like a Kerry-Edwards race. We wish they'd end up together on the ticket. One wants to help the vets, the other wants to help the poor. They really could beat Bush.

Clark is talking about Al Qaeda and Osama. He's giving a passionate speech. We like him too. Maybe it will be a Kerry-Clark ticket. That could be a winning combo too.

Bush may really be in trouble here.

Update: Dave Cullen has a rant on behalf of Howard Dean.

CNN projects John Kerry the winner at 8:22 pm. He has 38% right now to Dean's 24%.

8:00 pm Polls closed. CNN says exit polls show it's Kerry in the lead, followed by Dean, and Edwards and Clark almost tied. First returns at 8pm are in line with the exit polls. Dean is very much still in the game.

Updates on results here. These are updated every 15 minutes. CNN seems to be reporting faster here.

Oliver Willis is blogging live. Go on over.

Diane Sawyer gets very low marks from this LA Times journalist for the The Punch and Judy Dean Show that aired last night:

Out of the 96 questions that Sawyer asked, 90 were about personality and temperament and only six were even vaguely about issues; virtually all 96 were hostile and negative.

When Dean tried to move the discussion to matters of substance, Sawyer inevitably pushed it back to negative fluff. ("I just want to make sure that I come back on a couple of things --” one thing, you said that --” that you decided that you've got to be yourself. That you've got to return to being what you really aren't. What were you that was not who you really were?")

Dean's natural response should have been, at some point, to have cut Sawyer off: "Excuse me, I'm tired of answering these superficial questions. Can't we talk about issues that matter to the American people?" Had he done so, however, it would have appeared to confirm the rap on him as a hothead. So the Deans were forced into the frame supplied by Sawyer -- as a father who gets excited at his son's hockey game can't be trusted; a woman doctor who doesn't watch much TV isn't really a normal American.

[link via Atrios.]

In better news for Dean, a government employees' union is spending $1.6 million to help him get the nomination.

GenFoods makes the argument, with pictures, that President Bush may suffer from cocaine-induced Parkinson's Disease.

We seem to remember that the President's last public bout with alcohol and whatever else was at his 40th birthday party at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs.

We're not endorsing the theory, just pointing out the post.